Overconfident but yet well-calibrated and underconfident : a research not on judgmental miscalibration and flawed self-assessment

Andersson, Patric

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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2624
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-26249
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2005
The title of a journal, publication series: None
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject: 300 Social sciences, sociology, anthropology
Classification: JEL: A20 C90 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Entscheidung , Test , Theorie , Kognition
Keywords (English): Academic performance , calibration , education , overconfidence , self-assessment
Abstract: The present paper addresses the question whether overconfidence is an individually stable phenomenon. A within-subjects design was used to investigate whether judgmental miscalibration also reflects tendency to make flawed selfassessments. While the former notion refers to the tendency of individuals to put unrealistic beliefs in their judgments, the latter concerns the tendency of individuals to make inaccurate evaluations of their abilities and performance. On the whole, the paper finds little support that those two tendencies should be related. Depending on the employed measurement, the participants were found to be simultaneously overconfident, well-calibrated, and underconfident.
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