The Impact of Population Aging on Savings, Investment and Growth in the OECD Area

Börsch-Supan, Axel

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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-10621
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 1995
The title of a journal, publication series: Discussion Papers / Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik
Volume: 512
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik > Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Subject headings (SWD): OECD , Alterung , Bevölkerungsentwicklung , General Equilibrium Environmental Model
Abstract: Goal of this paper is an assessment of the relevance of the various channels through which population aging affects saving and investment. In a first part, I collect evidence on age-saving, ageconsumption, and age-income profiles in order to project the supply of and the demand for funds, given no behavioral changes. However, due to many feedbacks that may change individual behavior and due to the rapid globalization of world capital markets, major capital market disequilibria are unlikely to evolve. The second part of the paper is therefore concerned with an equilibrium analysis in which a global rate of return equilibrates the demand for, and the supply of, funds. In the short run, until about the year 2010, demographic effects are more likely to increase rather than to decrease the supply of funds. This result, in contrast to earlier studies, rests on the fact that a relatively rich baby boom generation is now entering the high saving and high income years. This increase in demand will meet an essentially unchanged demand for funds. In the longer run, however, a rising capital labor ratio due to population aging is likely to depress the return to capital in the aging OECD countries, reducing savings at the same time as governments are tempted to increase their demand for funds to finance social expenditures.
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