Multiple Priors as Similarity Weighted Frequencies


Eichberger, Jürgen ; Guerdjikova, Ani


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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2028
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-20287
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2008
The title of a journal, publication series: None
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject: 330 Economics
Subject headings (SWD): Entscheidung , Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung , Theorie
Reviewed: yes
Abstract: In this paper, we consider a decision-maker who tries to learn the distribution of outcomes from previously observed cases. For each observed sequence of cases the decision-maker predicts a set of priors expressing his beliefs about the underlying probability distribution. We impose a version of the concatenation axiom introduced in BILLOT, GILBOA, SAMET AND SCHMEIDLER (2005) which insures that the sets of priors can be represented as a weighted sum of the observed frequencies of cases. The weights are the uniquely determined similarities between the observed cases and the case under investigation.
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