Oil and unemployment in Germany


Löschel, Andreas ; Oberndorfer, Ulrich


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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2266
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-22661
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2008
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: E24 Q43 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Deutschland , Erdölpreis , Arbeitslosigkeit
Keywords (English): oil price , unemployment , Germany
Abstract: In this paper, we analyze oil price impacts on unemployment for Germany. Firstly, we survey theoretical and empirical literature on the oil-unemployment relationship and relate them to the German case. Secondly, we illustrate this issue within the framework of a vector autoregression (VAR) approach for Germany. For this purpose, we use three different specifications in order to adequately address the uncertainty related to the construction of an adequate oil variable. Using monthly data from 1973 to 2008, we show that oil price increases induce a rise in unemployment in the German labor market. Moreover, for a restricted sample period for post-unification Germany, we oppose claims that the oil to macroeconomy relationship has weakened since the 1980s. However, our results suggest that it has become more important to construct adequate measures of oil price variables.
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Löschel, Andreas ; Oberndorfer, Ulrich (2008) Oil and unemployment in Germany. Open Access [Working paper]
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