Pseudocontingencies: an integrative account of an intriguing cognitive illusion

Fiedler, Klaus ; Freytag, Peter ; Meiser, Thorsten

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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-23391
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2008
The title of a journal, publication series: Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung
Volume: 08-36
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject: 150 Psychology
Subject headings (SWD): Kognition , Kontingenztheorie
Abstract: The term pseudocontingency (PC) denotes the logically unwarranted inference of a contingency between two variables X and Y from information other than pairs of xi, yi observations, namely, the variables’ univariate baserates as assessed in one or more ecological contexts. We summarize recent experimental evidence, showing that PCs can play a pivotal role in many areas of judgment and decision making. We argue that the exploitation of the informational value of baserates underlying PCs offers an alternative perspective on many phenomena in the realm of adaptive cognition that have been studied in isolation so far. Although PCs can lead to serious biases under some conditions, they afford an efficient strategy for inductive inference making in probabilistic environments that render baserate information, rather than genuine covariation information, readily available.
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Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.

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