The reproduction of base-rates promotes pseudocontingencies

Freytag, Peter ; Vogel, Tobias ; Kutzner, Florian ; Fiedler, Klaus

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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-23406
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2008
The title of a journal, publication series: None
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject: 150 Psychology
Subject headings (SWD): Kognition , Kontingenztheorie
Abstract: Fiedler and Freytag (2004) proposed an alternative pathway to contingency assessment in terms of pseudocontingencies (PCs). PCs reflect the utilization of base-rate information in the formation of contingency judgments. Here, we introduce an instantiation of the phenomenon based on the mere reproduction of the base rates. Using a relationship-counseling scenario, participants in two experiments produced positive correlations on both indirect and direct measures of the contingency between partners’ responses to the subscales of a relationship inventory, although the objective contingency within each subscale had been negative in an initial learning phase. The magnitude of these effects was predicted accurately by computer simulations reproducing the base rate of ‘yes’ responses for each partner and domain. The findings are discussed within the PC framework.
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