Base-rate neglect based on base-rates in experience-based contingency learning


Kutzner, Florian ; Freytag, Peter ; Vogel, Tobias ; Fiedler, Klaus


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URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2515
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-25153
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2007
The title of a journal, publication series: Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung
Volume: 07-53
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject: 150 Psychology
Subject headings (SWD): Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit , Lernen , Kontingenztheorie
Abstract: Predicting criterion events based on probabilistic predictor events, humans often lend excessive weight to predictor event information and insufficient weight to criterion event base-rates. Using the matching-to-sample paradigm established in studies on experience-based contingency learning in animals, Goodie and Fantino (1996) showed that human judges exhibit base-rate neglect when sample cues are associated with response options through similarity relations. In conceptual replications of these studies, we demonstrated similar effects when sample cues resemble the response options in terms of base-rates skewed in the same direction rather than physical similarity. In line with the pseudocontingency illusion (Fiedler & Freytag, 2004), predictions were biased toward the more (less) frequently rewarded response option following the more (less) frequently presented sample cue. Thus, what is a demonstration of base-rate neglect from one perspective turns out to reflect the judges' sensitivity to the alignment of skewed base-rate distributions.
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Kutzner, Florian ; Freytag, Peter ; Vogel, Tobias ; Fiedler, Klaus (2007) Base-rate neglect based on base-rates in experience-based contingency learning. Open Access Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung Mannheim 07-53 [Working paper]
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