The role of surprise in hindsight bias : a metacognitive model of reduced and reversed hindsight bias

Müller, Patrick A. ; Stahlberg, Dagmar

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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-25517
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2007
The title of a journal, publication series: None
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject: 300 Social sciences, sociology, anthropology
Subject headings (SWD): Sozialpsychologie , Verhaltenssoziologie
Keywords (English): Hindsight Bias , Reversed Hindsight Bias , Surprise , Metacognition , Subjective Experiences
Abstract: Hindsight bias is the well researched phenomenon that people falsely believe that they would have correctly predicted the outcome of an event once it is known. In recent years, several authors have doubted the ubiquity of the effect and have reported a reversal under certain conditions. This article presents an integrative model on the role of surprise as one factor explaining the malleability of the hindsight bias. Three ways in which surprise influences the reconstruction of pre-outcome predictions are assumed: (1) Surprise is used as direct metacognitive heuristic to estimate the distance between outcome and prediction. (2) Surprise triggers a deliberate sense-making process, and (3) also biases this process by enhancing the retrieval of surprise-congruent information and expectancy-based hypothesis testing.
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Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.

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