Endogenous inflation : the role of expectations and strategic interaction

Seidel, Gerald

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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2662
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-26625
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2005
The title of a journal, publication series: None
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: E31 E58 C61 D84 L16 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Inflation , Hysterese , Inflationstheorie , Geldpolitik , Spieltheorie
Keywords (English): Inflation Persistence , endogenous dynamics , timeless optimization , central bank behavior , staggered contracts
Abstract: Macroeconomic fluctuations always are the result of complex interactive processes. For this reason, our challenge of the widely used New Keynesian Phillips Curve builds on Taylor's (1979) version, which provides room for a richer sequential and interactive structure. We show that the Taylor model can be fruitfully complemented by the assumption of a ‘timeless’ optimizing central bank. The macroeconomic equilibrium exhibits a significant degree of inflation inertia which is an endogenous economic result and not merely the consequence of exogenous persistence in aggregate real activity. This result is in stark contrast to earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found the New Keynesian Phillips curve to show more persistent reactions than its Taylor (1979) companion when being exposed to an exogenous monetary shocks.
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