Projection methods and scenarios for public and private pension information


Börsch-Supan, Axel ; Ludwig, Alexander ; Reil-Held, Anette


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URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2687
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-26872
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2004
The title of a journal, publication series: Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung
Volume: 04-61
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject: 330 Economics
Subject headings (SWD): Rente , Bevölkerungsentwicklung , Entwicklung
Abstract: Public pensions - the primary pillar of old-age income provision - will, in the future, be less generous than they have been in the past, in particular owing to the impact of demographic change. The pension gap is supposed to be plugged by the second and third pillars of pension provision. However, people require reliable planning information if they are to exercise greater individual responsibility. It is therefore absolutely essential that adequate information is made available about the level of pension benefits that will be generated by each pillar of old-age pension provision. This paper outlines a number of different means of presenting the level of future pensions and the assumptions on which such extrapolations are necessarily based. Our work is based on an assumed average rate of inflation of 1.5% and an average rate of real income growth not exceeding 1.5%. This last figure is derived from calculations made in the framework of a macroeconomic simulation model. This model also shows that while the funded pillar of old-age pension provision is not entirely immune to population aging, it is not substantially threatened by a substantial decrease in stock market prices, the so-called "asset meltdown".

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Börsch-Supan, Axel ; Ludwig, Alexander ; Reil-Held, Anette (2004) Projection methods and scenarios for public and private pension information. Open Access Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung Mannheim 04-61 [Working paper]
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