Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? : Experiments with real world and lab data

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URL:	http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2715
URN:	urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-27159
Document Type:	Working paper
Year of publication:	2004
The title of a journal, publication series:	None
Publication language:	English
Institution:	School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series:	Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject:	330 Economics
Classification:	JEL: H31 E62 D89 C91 ,
Subject headings (SWD):	Finanzpolitik , Erwartungsbildung , Mikroökonomie , Finanzwirtschaft , Informationsverhalten
Keywords (English):	Experiments , fiscal policy , expectations , causality , cointegration , panel data
Abstract:	We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We compare a VAR model of expectations for data which is presented in a fiscal frame with one for neutrally presented data. We measure the degree to which participants use fiscal data for their forecasts. Agents' expectations are found neither to be consistent with rational nor with purely adaptive expectations but, instead, follow an augmented-adaptive scheme. Methodological implications of the present approach for experiments in macroeconomics are also discussed.
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Das Dokument wird vom Publikationsserver der Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim bereitgestellt.

BASE: Bernasconi, Michele ; Kirchkamp, Oliver ; Paruolo, Paolo

Google Scholar: Bernasconi, Michele ; Kirchkamp, Oliver ; Paruolo, Paolo

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