Demographic change, foresight and international capital flows

Lührmann, Melanie

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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-2958
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2003
The title of a journal, publication series: MEA Discussion Papers
Volume: 038
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des MEA (Mannheim Research Institute For the Economics of Aging) > MEA Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: J1 G1 F2 E2 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Bevölkerungsentwicklung , Internationale Kapitalbewegung
Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between demographic change and international capital flows using a large cross-country time-series dataset. The analysis provides empirical evidence of a substantial an twofold demographic effect on international capital flow: First, capital flows are induced by changes in present demography. Countries with a large working-age population tend to be net exporters of capital, relatively younger economies importers of capital and extremely aged countries with a major population share of elderly also tend to import capital. In particular, high youth dependency induces current account deficits. Second, the paper provides evidence that future demographic changes are anticipated and affect current net capital flows, too. This twofold demographic effect on international capital flows can be hampered by capital controls and other capital market frictions. The impact of these frictions is also explored in the paper. The results indicate that they indeed affect capital flows.

Das Dokument wird vom Publikationsserver der Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim bereitgestellt.

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