Stock market expectations of Dutch households


Hurd, Michael ; Rooij, Maarten van ; Winter, Joachim


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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/3006
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-30061
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2010
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des MEA (Mannheim Research Institute For the Economics of Aging) > MEA Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: C42 D12 D84 G11 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Niederlande , Kapitalertrag , Anlageverhalten , Haushalt
Keywords (English): Probability , stock market participation , survey research
Abstract: Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households’ expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households’ stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.
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Hurd, Michael ; Rooij, Maarten van ; Winter, Joachim (2010) Stock market expectations of Dutch households. Open Access [Working paper]
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