A Bayesian approach to determine the impact of institutions on the unemployment rate


Sachs, Andreas


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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/3011
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-30119
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2010
The title of a journal, publication series: None
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: C33 E24 E02 ,
Subject headings (SWD): OECD , Arbeitslosigkeit , Arbeitsmarkt , Flexibilisierung , Regulierung , Institutionalismus , Panel , Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie , Schätzung
Keywords (English): Unemployment , institutions , labor and product markets , model averaging
Abstract: Labor and product market regulations affect the unemployment rate of a country without doubt. Econometricians, however, have yet to establish an unequivocal significance of this impact. Model mis-specification, one of the main underlying problems, is overcome by adopting a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. I apply this method to a panel data set that covers 17 OECD countries for the time period from 1982 to 2005 and for up to 20 potential explanatory variables. 8 institutional indicators are identified as significant determinants of unemployment. Endogeneity due to reverse causality is also considered by applying an instrumental variable estimation approach.
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