Estimating Party Positions across Countries and Time - A Dynamic Latent Variable Model for Manifesto Data


König, Thomas ; Marbach, Moritz ; Osnabrügge, Moritz


DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpt003
URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-...
Additional URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/24572675
Document Type: Article
Year of publication: 2013
The title of a journal, publication series: Political Analysis
Volume: 21
Issue number: 4
Page range: 468 -491
Place of publication: Oxford [u.a.]
Publishing house: Oxford Univ. Press
ISSN: 1047-1987 ; 1476-4989
Publication language: English
Institution: Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Mannheim Centre for European Social Research - Research Department B
Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences- CDSS (Social Sciences)
School of Social Sciences > Politische Wissenschaft II (König)
Subject: 320 Political science
Abstract: This article presents a new method for estimating positions of political parties across country- and time-specific contexts by introducing a latent variable model for manifesto data. We estimate latent positions and exploit bridge observations to make the scales comparable. We also incorporate expert survey data as prior information in the estimation process to avoid ex post facto interpretation of the latent space. To illustrate the empirical contribution of our method, we estimate the left-right positions of 388 parties competing in 238 elections across twenty-five countries and over sixty years. Compared to the puzzling volatility of existing estimates, we find that parties more modestly change their left-right positions over time. We also show that estimates without country- and time-specific bias parameters risk serious, systematic bias in about two-thirds of our data. This suggests that researchers should carefully consider the comparability of party positions across countries and/or time.

Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.




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König, Thomas ; Marbach, Moritz ; Osnabrügge, Moritz (2013) Estimating Party Positions across Countries and Time - A Dynamic Latent Variable Model for Manifesto Data. Political Analysis Oxford [u.a.] 21 4 468 -491 [Article]


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