Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election

DOI:	https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096513000802
URL:	https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-politic...
Weitere URL:	http://methods.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/publications/N...
Dokumenttyp:	Zeitschriftenartikel
Erscheinungsjahr:	2013
Titel einer Zeitschrift oder einer Reihe:	PS : Political Science & Politics
Band/Volume:	46
Heft/Issue:	3
Seitenbereich:	481-482
Ort der Veröffentlichung:	New York, NY [u.a.]
Verlag:	Cambridge University Press
ISSN:	1049-0965 , 1537-5935
Sprache der Veröffentlichung:	Englisch
Einrichtung:	Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > MZES - Arbeitsbereich B Fakultät für Sozialwissenschaften > Politische Wissenschaft, Quantitative Sozialwissenschaftliche Methoden (Gschwend 2007-)
Fachgebiet:	320 Politik
Abstract:	In the German national election this fall, based on the forecast of the Chancellor Model, the governing coalition will score a resounding victory. Chancellor Angela Merkel enjoys a high approval rating, which puts her at a 2-1 advantage over the challenger, Peer Steinbrück. Although Germany is not a presidential system, where voters elect the chief policymaker, chancellor support has proved to be a strong predictor of vote choice in German national elections. Our forecast model also includes long-term partisanship, which provides a broad base for the governing parties in this election, and length of tenure, which exacts a modest penalty after two terms of office. Since its premiere in 2002, the model has predicted the winner in each election. In a case of perhaps beginner's luck, the 2002 forecast scored a bull's-eye with 47.1%, the exact share of the governing parties; the forecast was posted three months before Election Day. No poll or other model, not even the Election-Day exit polls, came close to this performance; in fact, most people predicted a defeat for Schröder's red-green coalition (Norpoth and Gschwend 2003).