Aging and urban house prices

Hiller, Norbert ; Lerbs, Oliver W.

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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-388786
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2015
The title of a journal, publication series: ZEW Discussion Papers
Volume: 15-024
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: G12 , J11 , R31,
Keywords (English): Germany , urban house prices , demographic change
Abstract: This paper investigates the long-run relationships between the size and age composition of a city’s population and the price of local housing. For estimation purposes, we combine city-level demographic information with hous-ing price data for 87 cities in Germany over the period 1995-2012. Employing a panel error correction framework that accounts for the evolution of city income and other controls, we find that urban house prices perform stronger in cities that grow or age less rapidly. A combination of the empirical estimates with current population projections suggests that population aging will exert considerable downward pressure on urban house prices in upcoming years.

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