We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak
forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts
and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate
filters based on forecast accuracy over short rolling windows are somewhat successful
in improving predictability. While poor performance can be due to various factors, a
filter based on a prior tendency to provide extreme forecasts also improves
predictability.
Das Dokument wird vom Publikationsserver der Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim bereitgestellt.
![[img]](https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png)
Suche Autoren in