Zweitstimme.org. : ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen


Munzert, Simon ; Stötzer, Lukas ; Gschwend, Thomas ; Neunhoeffer, Marcel ; Sternberg, Sebastian



DOI: https://doi.org/10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-418
URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320312444...
Additional URL: https://www.nomos-elibrary.de/10.5771/0032-3470-20...
Document Type: Article
Year of publication: 2017
The title of a journal, publication series: Politische Vierteljahresschrift : PVS
Volume: 58
Issue number: 3
Page range: 418-441
Place of publication: Baden-Baden
Publishing house: Nomos
ISSN: 0720-4809 , 0720-7182 , 1862-2860
Related URLs: http://methods.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/publications/Articles/Munzert%20et%20al.%202017%20%20Zweitstimme.pdf
Publication language: German
Institution: Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Mannheim Centre for European Social Research - Research Department B
School of Social Sciences > Politische Wissenschaft, Quantitative Sozialwissenschaftliche Methoden (Gschwend 2007-)
Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences- CDSS (Social Sciences)
Subject: 320 Political science
Abstract: We present results of an ex-ante forecast of party-specific vote shares at the German Federal Election 2017. To that end, we combine data from published trial heat polls with structural information. The model takes care of the multi-party nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of certain events, such as the plurality of votes for a party or the majority for coalition options in parliament. The forecasts of our model are continuously being updated on the platform zweitstimme.org. The value of our approach goes beyond the realms of academia: We equip journalists, political pundits, and ordinary citizens with information that can help make sense of the parties’ latent support and ultimately make voting decisions better informed.

Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.




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Munzert, Simon ; Stötzer, Lukas ; Gschwend, Thomas ORCID: 0000-0002-8656-9622 ; Neunhoeffer, Marcel ; Sternberg, Sebastian (2017) Zweitstimme.org. : ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift : PVS Baden-Baden 58 3 418-441 [Article]


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