Centripetal and centrifugal incentives in mixed-member proportional systems

Kurella, Anna-Sophie ; Bräuninger, Thomas ; Pappi, Franz Urban

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0951629818774855
URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/09516...
Additional URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325400353...
Document Type: Article
Year of publication: 2018
The title of a journal, publication series: Journal of Theoretical Politics
Volume: 30
Issue number: 3
Page range: 306-334
Place of publication: Los Angeles, CA [u.a.]
Publishing house: Sage Publications
ISSN: 0951-6298 , 1460-3667
Publication language: English
Institution: Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Mannheim Centre for European Social Research - Research Department B
School of Social Sciences > Political Science, Political Economy (Bräuninger 2009-)
Subject: 320 Political science
Abstract: How does competition for first (candidate) and second ballot (party-list) votes affect the strategic positioning of parties in mixed-member proportional systems? We study this question in a simulation study of multiparty competition in the two tiers. In the first step, we use data from elections for the German Bundestag to estimate individual vote function for each tier based on ideology, policy, and valence incentives. We then use these parameter estimates to calibrate a model in which parties compete for either first- or second-tier votes. Results suggest that parties may face a dilemma when adopting a positional strategy. When national parties and their candidates hold significantly different valences, large valence advantages generate centripetal incentives whereas smaller valences exert a centrifugal pull. Overall, centrifugal incentives dominate the German mixed-member system.

Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.

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