Who were the voters behind the Schulz effect? An analysis of voter trajectories in the run-up to the 2017 German federal election

Wuttke, Alexander ; Schoen, Harald

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25050-8_3
URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/52429
Additional URL: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-65...
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-524294
Document Type: Book chapter
Year of publication: 2019
Book title: Die Bundestagswahl 2017 : Analysen der Wahl-, Parteien-, Kommunikations- und Regierungsforschung
Page range: 47-62
Publisher: Korte, Karl-Rudolf
Place of publication: Wiesbaden
Publishing house: Springer Fachmedien
ISBN: 978-3-658-25049-2 , 978-3-658-25050-8
Related URLs:
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Social Sciences > Politische Wissenschaft, Politische Psychologie (Schoen 2014-)
License: CC BY 4.0 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Subject: 320 Political science
Individual keywords (German): Bundestagswahl ; Wählerwanderung
Keywords (English): voting behavior ; federal elections ; German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) ; vote switching ; campaign effects
Abstract: In early 2017, after the nomination of Martin Schulz as candidate for chancellor, the SPD experienced a rapid surge in public support as measured in public opinion polls. Yet, the upward trend proved short-lived and the SPD ended up with the worst election result since 1949. Using data from a multi-wave panel survey, this analysis examines the voting trajectories of eight thousand German citizens over the course of one year in order to investigate the processes underlying the so called ‘Schulz effect’. The voter trajectories show that the surge and decline of public support for the SPD was accompanied by some reshuffling in the composition of its electorate. Moreover, different explanations of the party’s swaying in the polls are tested, showing that the SPD achieved the activation of dormant party identifiers but attracted and then lost other voters with diverse characteristics and policy preferences.

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BASE: Wuttke, Alexander ; Schoen, Harald

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ORCID: Wuttke, Alexander ORCID: 0000-0002-9579-5357 ; Schoen, Harald

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