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Inference to the best explanation in uncertain evidential situations
Trpin, Borut
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Pellert, Max
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DOI:
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https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axy027
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URL:
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https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1093...
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Dokumenttyp:
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Zeitschriftenartikel
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Erscheinungsjahr:
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2019
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Titel einer Zeitschrift oder einer Reihe:
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The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science : BJPS
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Band/Volume:
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70
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Heft/Issue:
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4
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Seitenbereich:
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978-1001
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Ort der Veröffentlichung:
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Chicago, Ill.
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Verlag:
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University of Chicago Press
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ISSN:
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0007-0882 , 1464-3537
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Sprache der Veröffentlichung:
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Englisch
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Einrichtung:
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Fakultät für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Data Science in the Economic and Social Sciences (Strohmaier, 2022-)
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Fachgebiet:
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330 Wirtschaft
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Abstract:
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It has recently been argued that a non-Bayesian probabilistic version of inference to the best explanation (IBE*) has a number of advantages over Bayesian conditionalization (Douven [2013]; Douven and Wenmackers [2017]). We investigate how IBE* could be generalized to uncertain evidential situations and formulate a novel updating rule IBE**. We then inspect how it performs in comparison to its Bayesian counterpart, Jeffrey conditionalization (JC), in a number of simulations where two agents, each updating by IBE** and JC, respectively, try to detect the bias of a coin while they are only partially certain what side the coin landed on. We show that IBE** more often prescribes high probability to the actual bias than JC. We also show that this happens considerably faster, that IBE** passes higher thresholds for high probability, and that it in general leads to more accurate probability distributions than JC. 1 Introduction 2 Generalizing Inference to the Best Explanation to Uncertain Evidential Situations 3 Detecting the Bias of a Coin 4 Overall Performance of IBE** versus Jeffrey Conditionalization 5 Speed of Convergence 6 The Threshold for High Subjective Probability 7 Epistemic Inaccuracy 8 Conclusions
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 | Dieser Datensatz wurde nicht während einer Tätigkeit an der Universität Mannheim veröffentlicht, dies ist eine Externe Publikation. |
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