The Zweitstimme forecast for the German Federal Election 2025: Coalition majorities and vacant districts

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DOI:	https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096525000150
URL:	https://resolve.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-pol...
Additional URL:	https://www.researchgate.net/publication/389194476...
URN:	urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-704187
Document Type:	Article
Year of publication:	2026
The title of a journal, publication series:	PS : Political Science & Politics
Volume:	59
Issue number:	1
Page range:	48-54
Place of publication:	New York, NY [u.a.]
Publishing house:	Cambridge University Press
ISSN:	1049-0965 , 1537-5935
Publication language:	English
Institution:	Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Mannheim Centre for European Social Research - Research Department B School of Social Sciences > Politische Wissenschaft, Quantitative Sozialwissenschaftliche Methoden (Gschwend 2007-)
Pre-existing license:	Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Subject:	320 Political science
Keywords (English):	election forecasting
Abstract:	In this article, we provide a forecast for the German Federal Election of 2025. We use our previous forecasting models to provide national-level forecasts for party vote shares and district-level outcomes for candidate votes. We show that the combination of both permits us to calculate both forecasts for coalition majorities in parliament, and “vacant districts” under the recent electoral reforms.

	Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.
	Das Dokument wird vom Publikationsserver der Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim bereitgestellt.

BASE: Erfort, Cornelius ; Stoetzer, Lukas F. ; Gschwend, Thomas ; Koch, Elias ; Munzert, Simon ; Rajski, Hannah

Google Scholar: Erfort, Cornelius ; Stoetzer, Lukas F. ; Gschwend, Thomas ; Koch, Elias ; Munzert, Simon ; Rajski, Hannah

ORCID: Erfort, Cornelius ; Stoetzer, Lukas F. ; Gschwend, Thomas

; Koch, Elias ; Munzert, Simon ; Rajski, Hannah

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