A simulation framework for studying the social impacts of algorithm-based refugee matching

Kern, Christoph ; Kappenberger, Jakob ; Gerdon, Frederic ; Ceballos, Clara Strasser ; Szafran, Daria ; Rupp, Florian ; Bach, Ruben L.

URL:	https://proceedings.mlr.press/v294/kern25a.html
Document Type:	Conference or workshop publication
Year of publication:	2025
Book title:	European Workshop on Algorithmic Fairness, 30 June-2 July 2025, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
The title of a journal, publication series:	Proceedings of Machine Learning Research : PMLR
Volume:	294
Page range:	487-491
Conference title:	EWAF’25, Fourth European Workshop on Algorithmic Fairness
Location of the conference venue:	Eindhoven, The Netherlands
Date of the conference:	30.06.-02.07.2025
Publisher:	Weerts, Hilde ; Pechenizkiy, Mykola ; Allhutter, Doris ; Corrêa, Ana Maria ; Grote, Thomas ; Liem, Cynthia
Place of publication:	Red Hook, NY
Publishing house:	Curran Associates, Inc.
Publication language:	English
Institution:	Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Mannheim Centre for European Social Research - Research Department A
Subject:	310 Statistics
Keywords (English):	algorithmic matching , agent-based model , integration , refugees , fairnes
Abstract:	The integration chances of refugees in their host country are critically shaped by the contextual conditions of the location to which they are assigned upon arrival. Several research groups have developed algorithmic tools to optimize refugee-location matching, with the overall aim of improving refugees’ integration outcomes. These tools are used in a highly sensitive context and thus their design, social impacts, and potential long-term consequences need to be systematically assessed. To investigate such effects, we propose an agent-based simulation framework that allows to simulate different allocation mechanisms and to study their impacts on integration outcomes. We illustrate the simulation framework in the German context by comparing the current approach of the Königsteiner Schlüssel (i.e., quasi-random allocation) with the algorithm-based procedure GeoMatch. We study each procedures’ impacts on both labor market and social integration and assess structural effects on inequalities between subgroups of asylum seekers. The decision models and agents’ characteristics are based on the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of asylum seekers and refugees in Germany. Our study shows how agent-based models can be used to study unintended consequences of algorithmic allocations of asylum seekers in dynamically changing social environments.