The dynamic impact of refugee immigration on native workers


Gallegos Torres, Katia ; Sommerfeld, Katrin


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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-714764
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2025
The title of a journal, publication series: ZEW Discussion Papers
Volume: 25-058
Place of publication: Mannheim
Edition: This version: October 15, 2025
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: J15 , J21 , J31 , J61,
Keywords (English): refugee migration , labor market outcomes , complementarities
Abstract: We study how low and medium-skilled refugee immigration affects natives’ labor market outcomes. Using individual-level panel data on the German workforce for 2011-2019 and exogenous regional variation from processing authorities’ distances, we find that a larger inflow of refugees to a district increases the probability of full-time employment for incumbent workers. Fewer outflows of employment drive this effect. The yearly estimates suggest positive labor demand responses in the short run-in occupations that supply services to the refugees - and positive labor supply effects in the medium run-in manufacturing occupations. Wages, job task composition, and job changes remain unaffected, though positive mobility responses are observed.




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