Inference for batched adaptive experiments


Kemper, Jan ; Rostam-Afschar, Davud


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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-719041
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2025
The title of a journal, publication series: ZEW Discussion Papers
Volume: 25-070
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
Business School > Area Accounting & Taxation (Rostam-Afschar 2021-)
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: C12 , C13 , C9 , D83,
Keywords (English): adaptive experiments , heteroskedasticity , causal inference , randomized controlled trial
Abstract: The advantages of adaptive experiments have led to their rapid adoption in economics, other fields, as well as among practitioners. However, adaptive experiments pose challenges for causal inference. This note suggests a BOLS (batched ordinary least squares) test statistic for inference of treatment effects in adaptive experiments. The statistic provides a precisionequalizing aggregation of per-period treatment-control differences under heteroskedasticity. The combined test statistic is a normalized average of heteroskedastic per-period z-statistics and can be used to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals. We provide simulation results comparing rejection rates in the typical case with few treatment periods and few (or many) observations per batch.




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BASE: Kemper, Jan ; Rostam-Afschar, Davud

Google Scholar: Kemper, Jan ; Rostam-Afschar, Davud

ORCID: Kemper, Jan ; Rostam-Afschar, Davud ORCID: 0000-0002-9358-998X

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