survey participation , survey response , measurement bias , nonresponse bias , political behavior , public opinion , causal inference
Abstract:
This paper-based dissertation investigates how political events shape survey response behavior and the resulting measurement of political attitudes. It argues that survey participation and responses are sensitive to contextual political stimuli, which can generate systematic distortions in observed public opinion. The first study examines how snap election calls affect individuals’ vote intention uncertainty and its expression in surveys. The second analyzes how winner-loser dynamics influence post-election survey nonresponse and panel attrition. The third study develops a framework to detect and assess compositional bias in event-study designs, distinguishing true preference change from effects rooted in sample imbalances. Together, the dissertation advances the understanding of how political context influences survey-based inference and provides tools to identify and address event-induced measurement bias.
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