Verifiable information transmission in a crisis bargaining model

Bernauer, Eva

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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-396812
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2015
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences- CDSS (Social Sciences)
Subject: 320 Political science
Classification: JEL: C78 , F51 , F53,
Subject headings (SWD): Vertrauensbildende Maßnahme , Erhebungsverfahren, Transmission, Verhandlungstheorie , Militarismus
Keywords (English): CBMs , confidence-building measures , information transmission , crisis bargaining , formal model , militarized interstate disputes
Abstract: The present study develops a formal model on the rationale and effectiveness of verifiable information transmission - the core characteristic of confidence-building measures (CBMs). CBMs have received high attention in the case study literature and day-to-day political business, yet are largely neglected in formal literature. This is surprising given that the desirability and peace-inducing effects of CBMs are debated. The formal model shows that by unilaterally or bilaterally increasing the amount of verifiable information concerning military aspects, CBMs may increase the parties' expected payoffs and eliminate the risk of war. By offering a solution to the renowned information problem in crisis bargaining, without resorting to domestic audiences or third parties, this study also contributes to the crisis bargaining literature.

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