Dynamic dual process account explaining the bias after outcome – An exploratory research on memory distortion hindsight bias

Sheng, Liang

Liang Sheng dissertation.pdf - Published

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URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/39948
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-399488
Document Type: Doctoral dissertation
Year of publication: 2015
Place of publication: Mannheim
University: Universität Mannheim
Evaluator: Pohl, Rüdiger
Date of oral examination: 2 December 2015
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Social Sciences > Kognitive Psychologie u. Differentielle Psychologie (Erdfelder 2002-2019)
MADOC publication series: Department of Economics > Working Paper Series
Subject: 150 Psychology
Subject headings (SWD): Erinnerungstäuschung
Keywords (English): Hindsight Bias , Depletion , Interference , Knowledge updating
Abstract: When people attempt to recall their pre-feedback estimation of a general knowledge question, they are often biased toward the feedback. This is portrayed as hindsight bias (HB) memory distortion type. The current study is a theory-driven exploratory research that aims to discover the fundamental underlying mechanisms of such bias. Experiment 1 and 2 confirm and verify the appropriate interference task and depletion procedure used for the main experiments. Experiment 3 applies the depletion procedure on the HB memory paradigm and finds a descriptive increasing trend of HB after depletion. Experiment 4 combines the labeling effect (within-subjects manipulation) and depletion procedure on HB and further confirms the result of experiment 3. A single-dissociation pattern of HB magnitude after depletion with different labeling conditions is obtained, indicating a dynamic dual-process mechanism underlying HB, with knowledge-updating behavior and interference resistance action as the two controlled and flexible processes yielding HB. Results of HB are obtained from both traditional inference analyses and the multinomial modeling analyses. Comparisons are discussed demonstrating the superiority of the latter analyzing method applying HB.

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