Machtwechsel in Sicht? Die Vorhersage des Kanzlermodells für die Bundestagswahl 2017

Gschwend, Thomas ; Norpoth, Helmut

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Document Type: Article
Year of publication: 2017
The title of a journal, publication series: Politische Vierteljahresschrift : PVS
Volume: 58
Issue number: 3
Page range: 392-406
Place of publication: Wiesbaden ; Baden-Baden
Publishing house: Springer VS ; Nomos
ISSN: 0032-3470 , 1862-2860
Publication language: German
Institution: Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Mannheim Centre for European Social Research - Research Department B
School of Social Sciences > Politische Wissenschaft, Quantitative Sozialwissenschaftliche Methoden (Gschwend 2007-)
Subject: 320 Political science
Abstract: The Chancellor Model predicts that the 2017 Bundestag election will most likely confirm Angela Merkel for another term as head of the federal government. As of June this year, she leads her Social Democratic challenger Martin Schulz by a wide enough margin in chancellor popularity to overcome any fatigue with her tenure after three terms. Besides continuing with the Grand Coalition, Merkel also has the option of entering a Jamaica-coalition (with the FDP and Greens), which would command a majority in the new Bundestag. A shift in chancellor popularity, however, would change the forecast. In the event that Schulz ultimately surpasses Merkel in chancellor popularity, as he did in late February, the SPD candidate would be more likely to head the next German government.

Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.

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