Hindsight bias in metamemory: Outcome knowledge influences the recollection of judgments of learning


Zimdahl, Malte F. ; Undorf, Monika



DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2021.1919144
URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/096582...
Additional URL: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33896394/
Document Type: Article
Year of publication Online: 2021
The title of a journal, publication series: Memory
Volume: tba
Page range: 1-14
Place of publication: Hove ; London
Publishing house: Psychology Press ; Taylor & Francis
ISSN: 0965-8211 , 1464-0686
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Social Sciences > Kognitive Psychologie u. Differentielle Psychologie (Erdfelder)
Subject: 150 Psychology
Abstract: Hindsight bias describes people’s tendency to overestimate how accurately they have predicted an event’s outcome after obtaining knowledge about it. Outcome knowledge has been shown to influence various forms of judgments, but it is unclear whether outcome knowledge also produces a hindsight bias on Judgments of Learning (JOLs). Three experiments tested whether people overestimated the accuracy of their memory predictions after obtaining knowledge about their actual memory performance. In all experiments, participants studied 60 cue-target word pairs, made a JOL for each word pair, and tried to recall the targets in a cued-recall test. In Experiments 1a and 1b, people recollected their original JOLs after attempting to recall each target, that is, after they obtained outcome knowledge for all items. In Experiments 2 and 3, people recollected their original JOLs in a separate phase after attempting to recall half the targets so that they had outcome knowledge for some but not all items. In all experiments, recollected JOLs were closer to actual memory performance than original JOLs for items with outcome knowledge only. Thus, outcome knowledge produced a hindsight bias on JOLs. Our results demonstrate that people overestimate the accuracy of their memory predictions in hindsight.

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BASE: Zimdahl, Malte F. ; Undorf, Monika

Google Scholar: Zimdahl, Malte F. ; Undorf, Monika

ORCID: Zimdahl, Malte F. ORCID: 0000-0001-5808-2967 ; Undorf, Monika

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