Multi-accurate CATE is robust to unknown covariate shifts


Kern, Christoph ; Kim, Michael P. ; Zhou, Angela



URL: https://openreview.net/forum?id=VOGlTb27ob
Additional URL: https://jmlr.org/tmlr/papers/
Document Type: Article
Year of publication Online: 2024
Date: 29 October 2024
The title of a journal, publication series: Transactions on Machine Learning Research : TMLR
Volume: tba
Issue number: tba
Page range: 1-59
Place of publication: [Amherst, Massachusetts]
Publishing house: OpenReview.net
ISSN: 2835-8856
Publication language: English
Institution: Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Mannheim Centre for European Social Research - Research Department A
Subject: 310 Statistics
Abstract: Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly deployed on different, possibly unknown populations. We use methodology for learning multi-accurate predictors to post-process CATE T-learners (differenced regressions) to become robust to unknown covariate shifts at the time of deployment. The method works in general for pseudo-outcome regression, such as the DR-learner. We show how this approach can combine (large) confounded observational and (smaller) randomized datasets by learning a confounded predictor from the observational dataset, and auditing for multi-accuracy on the randomized controlled trial. We show improvements in bias and mean squared error in simulations with increasingly larger covariate shift, and on a semi-synthetic case study of a parallel large observational study and smaller randomized controlled experiment. Overall, we establish a connection between methods developed for multi-distribution learning and achieve appealing desiderata (e.g. external validity) in causal inference and machine learning.
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