Unraveling electoral volatility : the influence of conflicting attitudes in multi-party systems

Dentler, Klara

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URN:	urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-705365
Dokumenttyp:	Dissertation
Erscheinungsjahr:	2025
Ort der Veröffentlichung:	Mannheim
Hochschule:	Universität Mannheim
Gutachter:	Dassonneville, Ruth
Datum der mündl. Prüfung:	2025
Sprache der Veröffentlichung:	Englisch
Einrichtung:	Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > GESS - CDSS (SOWI)
Fachgebiet:	320 Politik
Freie Schlagwörter (Englisch):	political ambivalence , vote switching , electoral volatility , sources of conflict , multi-party systems
Abstract:	Over the past two decades, vote switching has become increasingly common. One underexplored factor driving this behavior is the impact of internal sources of conflict, particularly political ambivalence. While the relationship between ambivalence and vote switching has been examined within the American two-party system, its role in multi-party systems (MPS) remains largely unstudied. This dissertation makes three key contributions. First, it develops a theoretical framework outlining how party ambivalence, leader ambivalence, party-leader disagreement, and coalition disagreement influence electoral behavior in multi-party contexts. Second, it introduces and validates an alternative measure of ambivalence tailored to MPS. Third, it identifies and empirically assesses which sources of internal conflict most significantly affect voting behavior, with a specific focus on vote switching. Findings indicate that all three forms of conflict exert a meaningful influence on vote switching within MPS. Among them, political ambivalence emerges as one of the most consistent and significant predictors, substantially increasing the likelihood of a voter switching parties.