Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?


Franz, Wolfgang


[img]
Preview
PDF
ZEW56.pdf - Published

Download (584kB)

URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/167
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-1679
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2003
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: E31 E24 C22 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Deutschland , Arbeitslosigkeit
Abstract: This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical instrument, suitable for economic policy: the possibility of a non-vertical Phillips curve(e.g. in times of low inflation), the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, the(mis-)measurement of important variables such as inflation expectations, cointegration issues, and a time variability of the NAIRU and its confidence intervals. Despite many serious caveats a new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany based on conventional Phillips curves as well as on new approaches such as using direct measures of inflationary expectations, the Kalman filter method, and the residual-based bootstrap procedure (in order to estimate confidence intervals). However, by any method, simple or complex, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness.
Additional information:

Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.

Das Dokument wird vom Publikationsserver der Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim bereitgestellt.




+ Citation Example and Export

Franz, Wolfgang (2003) Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up? Open Access Mannheim [Working paper]
[img]
Preview


+ Search Authors in

+ Download Statistics

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics



You have found an error? Please let us know about your desired correction here: E-Mail


Actions (login required)

Show item Show item