We investigate if information from checking accounts may help banks to monitor the credit risk of their customers. Analyzing a unique data set with more than 3 million account-month observations from the period 2002-2006, we find that the credit line usage, the cumulative number of limit violations, the account amplitude and credit payments exhibit an abnormal pattern approximately 12 months before default events. Differentiating by customer type reveals that checking account information is particularly helpful for monitoring small businesses and individuals. We condition the checking account behavior on customers' internal credit ratings and control for credit line changes as well as bank relationship characteristics like the number of accounts, distance and duration.
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Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract
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