Projecting the medium-term : outcomes and errors for GDP growth


Kappler, Marcus


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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/1788
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-17883
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2007
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: E23 E27 C53 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Wirtschaft , Potenzial , Prognose , Prognoseverfahren , Bewertung , G-7-Staaten
Keywords (English): Potential output , projections , forecast evaluation
Abstract: The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting - the production function approach - in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth for the individual G7 countries is conducted. To carry out the forecast performance check a particular testing framework is derived that allows the computation of robust test statistics given the specific nature of the generated out-of sample forecasts. In addition, medium-term GDP projections from national and international institutions are examined and it is assessed whether these projections convey a reliable view about future economic developments and whether there is scope for improving their predictive content.
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Das Dokument wird vom Publikationsserver der Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim bereitgestellt.




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Kappler, Marcus (2007) Projecting the medium-term : outcomes and errors for GDP growth. Open Access [Working paper]
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