The expectations view on fiscal policy : an experiment using real world data


Bernasconi, Michele ; Kirchkamp, Oliver


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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2790
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-27904
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2002
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > Sonstige - Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Sonderforschungsbereich 504 > Rationalitätskonzepte, Entscheidungsverhalten und ökonomische Modellierung (Laufzeit 1997 - 2008)
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: H31 E62 D89 C91 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Europäische Union , Finanzpolitik , Erwarteter Nutzen , Verbrauch
Keywords (English): Fiscal expectations , experiments , Antikeynesian
Abstract: To understand the effect of fiscal policy on the private sector we have to comprehend how expectations about fiscal variables are formed. However, little is known about the way people form expectations about fiscal variables: no undercutting theory exists, not to say empirical evidence. The problem is that “expectations are unobservable” (Bertola and Drazen [BD93, p.16]). We generate observable expectations using a combination of laboratory experiments and real world data from several European countries. Based upon these observable expectations we develop a model of formation of expectations. We fit real world data and study the effect of fiscal policies. We show that we can study the relationship between private consumption and government consumption.
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Das Dokument wird vom Publikationsserver der Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim bereitgestellt.




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Bernasconi, Michele ; Kirchkamp, Oliver (2002) The expectations view on fiscal policy : an experiment using real world data. Open Access [Working paper]
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