How do people take into account weight, strength and quality of segregated vs. aggregated data? Experimental evidence

Kraemer, Carlo ; Weber, Martin

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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-2800
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2004
The title of a journal, publication series: None
Publication language: English
Institution: Business School > Sonstige - Fakultät für Betriebswirtschaftslehre
MADOC publication series: Lehrstuhl für ABWL, Finanzwirtschaft, insb. Bankbetriebslehre (Weber) > Publications
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: D 8 C 91 C 25 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Datenanalyse , Informationsgehalt , Bayes-Regel
Abstract: In this experimental study we investigated how people aggregate two sets of signals about the state of the world to reach a single probability judgment. The signal sets may differ in the way signals are presented, in their number as well as their quality. By varying the presentation mode of the signals we investigated how people deal with segregated and aggregated evidence. We investigated whether subjects sufficiently take into account weight (number of signals), strength (composition) and quality of the information provided. The results indicate that consideration of the weight and strength of signals strongly depends on the type of their presentation. Particular patterns can be identified which determine if weight and/or strength are either under- or overweighted.
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