Financial Overconfidence Over Time - Foresight, Hindsight, and Insight of Investors


Merkle, Christoph



DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2001513
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2012
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: Business School > ABWL u. Finanzwirtschaft, insbes. Bankbetriebslehre (Weber 1993-2017)
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: G02 , G11,
Abstract: Overconfidence leads to increased trading activity, higher risk taking, and less diversification. In a panel survey of online brokerage clients, we ask for stock market and portfolio expectations and derive several overconfidence measures from the responses. Overconfidence is present in our sample in various forms. By matching survey data with investors' actual transactions and portfolio holdings, we find an influence of overplacement on trading activity, of overprecision and overestimation on degree of diversification, and of overprecision and overplacement on risk taking. We explore the evolution of overconfidence over time and identify a role of past success and hindsight on subsequent degree of overconfidence.




Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.




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