Backwardation and Normal Backwardation in Energy Futures Markets : With an Application to "Metallgesellschaft’s" Short-Dated Rollover Hedging of Long-Term Contracts


Charupat, Narat ; Deaves, Richard


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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/386
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-3869
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2002
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Subject headings (SWD): Energiemarkt , Metallgesellschaft , Saisonale Komponente
Abstract: We show that, since the inception of energy futures markets, prices have on average exhibited backwardation. Normal backwardation has also been the norm, but, because of the low power of the standard tests, most researchers have concluded that the unbiased expectations model cannot be rejected. The fact that backwardation has been and (though somewhat more weakly) continues to be prevalent makes MGRM’s strategy of hedging long-term supply commitments with short-dated futures contracts look somewhat better than previous observers have argued. That said, it should be re-stressed that their strategy was a highly speculative one and its unraveling should have come as no great surprise.
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Charupat, Narat ; Deaves, Richard (2002) Backwardation and Normal Backwardation in Energy Futures Markets : With an Application to "Metallgesellschaft’s" Short-Dated Rollover Hedging of Long-Term Contracts. Open Access [Working paper]
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