The perils of debt deflation in the Euro area - a multi regime model


Semmler, Willi ; Haider, Alexander


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URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/40126
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-401268
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2015
The title of a journal, publication series: ZEW Discussion Papers
Volume: 15-071
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: E430 , F36 , F450,
Keywords (English): Debt deflation , secular stagnation , Euro area , interest rate spread , multi regime model
Abstract: Academic research and policy makers in the Euro area are currently concerned with the threat of debt deflation and secular stagnation in Europe. Empirical evidence seems to suggest that secular stagnation and debt deflation in the Euro area may be rather slowly developing. Yet what appears as major peril is that debt deflation with a lack of economic growth, rising real interest rates and further rising debt may trigger household defaults, defaults of firms and banks, rise of risk premia, and default risk of certain sectors of the economy or sovereign defaults. It is this rising default and financial risk then that may lead to a regime change to a slowly moving debt crisis with high financial risk and high financial stress. In order to explore those issues, a macro policy model of Svensson type is introduced, exhibiting a regime of low and high financial stress. Then, a four dimensional multi-regime VAR is employed to an Euro area data set to support the theoretical model and the claim that in particular Southern Euro area countries are affected by debt deflation and financial market stress.

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Semmler, Willi ; Haider, Alexander (2015) The perils of debt deflation in the Euro area - a multi regime model. Open Access ZEW Discussion Papers Mannheim 15-071 [Working paper]
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