Nonparametric instrumental variable methods for dynamic treatment evaluation

Berg, Gerard J. van den ; Bonev, Petyo ; Mammen, Enno

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URL:	https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/40213
URN:	urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-402136
Dokumenttyp:	Arbeitspapier
Erscheinungsjahr:	2016
Titel einer Zeitschrift oder einer Reihe:	Working Paper Series
Band/Volume:	16-02
Ort der Veröffentlichung:	Mannheim
Sprache der Veröffentlichung:	Englisch
Einrichtung:	Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre > Alexander v. Humboldt Professor in Econometrics and Empirical Economics (van den Berg 2009-2016)
MADOC-Schriftenreihe:	Department of Economics > Working Paper Series
Fachgebiet:	330 Wirtschaft
Fachklassifikation:	JEL: C14 , C41 , J64 , J65,
Freie Schlagwörter (Englisch):	hazard rate , duration variable , treatment effects , survival function , noncompliance , regression discontinuity design , unemployment , labor market policy reform , active labor market policy , unemployment benefits
Abstract:	We develop a nonparametric instrumental variable approach for the estimation of average treatment effects on hazard rates and conditional survival probabilities, without model structure.We derive constructive identification proofs for average treatment effects under noncompliance and dynamic selection, exploiting instrumental variation taking place during ongoing spells. We derive asymptotic distributions of the corresponding estimators. This includes a detailed examination of noncompliance in a dynamic context. In an empirical application, we evaluate the French labor market policy reform PARE which abolished the dependence of unemployment insurance benefits on the elapsed unemployment duration and simultaneously introduced additional active labor market policy measures. The estimated effect of the reform on the survival function of the duration of unemployment duration is positive and significant. Neglecting selectivity leads to an underestimation of the effects in absolute terms.