Jobs, crime, and votes : a short-run evaluation of the refugee crisis in Germany


Gehrsitz, Markus ; Ungerer, Martin


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URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/41789
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-417893
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2016
The title of a journal, publication series: ZEW Discussion Papers
Volume: 16-086
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: J6 , J15 , K4 , D72,
Keywords (English): Immigration , refugees , unemployment , crime , voting
Abstract: Millions of refugees made their way to Europe between 2014 and 2015, with over one million arriving in Germany alone. Yet, little is known about the impact of this inow on labor markets, crime, and voting behavior. This article uses administrative data on refugee allocation and provides an evaluation of the short-run consequences of the refugee inow. Our identification strategy exploits that a scramble for accommodation determined the assignment of refugees to German counties resulting in exogeneous variations in the number of refugees per county even within states. Our estimates suggest that migrants have not displaced native workers but have themselves struggled to find gainful employment. We find very small increases in crime in particular with respect to drug offenses and fare-dodging. Our analysis further suggests that counties which experience a larger inux see neither more nor less support for the main anti-immigrant party than counties which experience small migrant inows.

Das Dokument wird vom Publikationsserver der Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim bereitgestellt.




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Gehrsitz, Markus ; Ungerer, Martin (2016) Jobs, crime, and votes : a short-run evaluation of the refugee crisis in Germany. Open Access ZEW Discussion Papers Mannheim 16-086 [Working paper]
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