All is not lost that is delayed : overconfidence and investment failure


Betzer, André ; Bongard, Inga van den ; Theissen, Erik ; Volkmann, Christine



URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_i...
Dokumenttyp: Arbeitspapier
Erscheinungsjahr: 2017
Titel einer Zeitschrift oder einer Reihe: SSRN Working Paper Series
Ort der Veröffentlichung: Rochester, NY
Sprache der Veröffentlichung: Englisch
Einrichtung: Fakultät für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > ABWL u. Finanzierung (Theissen 2009-)
Fachgebiet: 330 Wirtschaft
Freie Schlagwörter (Englisch): overconfidence , small and medium-sized enterprises , corporate investment , private companies
Abstract: Using a unique panel data set of private German firms over the period 2002 to 2013 we analyze the relation between managerial overconfidence and investment policy in small and medium-sized firms. We construct direct estimates of managerial overconfidence that are based on sales forecasts. We find that overconfident managers are more likely to invest, and that this relation is driven by expansion investments (as opposed to replacement investments). Most importantly, we provide empirical evidence on the determinants of failed (downsized, delayed or abandoned) corporate investment projects. Controlling for socio-demographic variables and firm characteristics, we find that investment projects planned by overconfident managers are more likely to fail. When we differentiate between the three categories of failure (abandoning, delaying, and downsizing) we find that overconfident managers are more likely to delay, rather than to abandon or downsize, an investment project. We offer an explanation that is based on the theory of cognitive dissonance.




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