Turnover of individuals with similar career sequences as a predictor of employer change

URL:	https://lacosa.lives-nccr.ch/sites/lacosa.lives-nc...
Additional URL:	https://lacosa.lives-nccr.ch/sites/lacosa.lives-nc...
Document Type:	Conference or workshop publication
Year of publication:	2016
Book title:	Proceedings of the International Conference on Sequence Analysis and Related Methods (LaCOSA II) : Lausanne, June 8-10, 2016
The title of a journal, publication series:	Annual meeting proceedings / Academy of Management
Page range:	815-836
Conference title:	LaCOSA II
Location of the conference venue:	Lausanne, Switzerland
Date of the conference:	June 8-10, 2016
Publisher:	Ritschard, Gilbert
Place of publication:	Genève
Publishing house:	Swiss National Center of Competence in Research LIVES
Publication language:	English
Institution:	Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences - CDSB (Business Studies) Business School > ABWL, Personalmanagement u. Führung (Biemann 2013-)
Subject:	330 Economics
Keywords (English):	Career pattern , Optimal matching analysis , Turnover
Abstract:	Occupational career patterns are conceptualized as sequences that consist of individuals’ occupational states and employer changes. These sequences are often similar, as many careers are path dependent and follow general patterns. Our hypothesis is that employee turnover can be predicted by employer changes of individuals with similar career trajectories. We derived 1,651 career sequences that incorporate 20 years of individuals’ occupational positions from a large national panel. The similarity of career sequences was assessed with the optimal matching method. We then used the resulting similarity measures as weights for a novel predictor of individuals’ employer changes. In support of our hypothesis, employer changes in similar career sequences predicted turnover. The method introduced in this study could help in reinforcing the use of prospective, longitudinal designs in career literature.