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An economic history of fertility in the United States: 1826-1960
Jones, Larry E.
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Tertilt, Michèle
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DOI:
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https://doi.org/10.3386/w12796
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URL:
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https://www.nber.org/papers/w12796
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Weitere URL:
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https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/12796.html
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Dokumenttyp:
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Arbeitspapier
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Erscheinungsjahr:
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2006
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Titel einer Zeitschrift oder einer Reihe:
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NBER Working Paper
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Band/Volume:
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12796
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Ort der Veröffentlichung:
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Cambridge, Mass.
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Sprache der Veröffentlichung:
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Englisch
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Einrichtung:
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Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre > Makro- u. Entwicklungsökonomie (Tertilt 2010-)
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Fachgebiet:
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330 Wirtschaft
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Abstract:
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In this paper, we use data from the US census to document the history of the relationship between fertility choice and key economic indicators at the individual level for women born between 1826 and 1960. We find that this data suggests several new facts that should be useful for researchers trying to model fertility. (1) The reduction in fertility known as the Demographic Transition (or the Fertility Transition) seems to be much sharper based on cohort fertility measures compared to usual measures like Total Fertility Rate; (2) The baby boom was not quite as large as is suggested by some previous work; (3) We find a strong negative relationship between income and fertility for all cohorts and estimate an overall income elasticity of about -0.38 for the period; (4) We also find systematic deviations from a time invariant, isoelastic, relationship between income and fertility. The most interesting of these is an increase in the income elasticity of demand for children for the 1876-1880 to 1906-1910 birth cohorts. This implies an increased spread in fertility by income which was followed by a dramatic compression.
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 | Dieser Datensatz wurde nicht während einer Tätigkeit an der Universität Mannheim veröffentlicht, dies ist eine Externe Publikation. |
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