An economic history of fertility in the United States: 1826-1960


Jones, Larry E. ; Tertilt, Michèle



DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w12796
URL: https://www.nber.org/papers/w12796
Additional URL: https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/12796.html
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2006
The title of a journal, publication series: NBER Working Paper
Volume: 12796
Place of publication: Cambridge, Mass.
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > VWL, Makro- u. Entwicklungsökonomie (Tertilt 2010-)
Subject: 330 Economics
Abstract: In this paper, we use data from the US census to document the history of the relationship between fertility choice and key economic indicators at the individual level for women born between 1826 and 1960. We find that this data suggests several new facts that should be useful for researchers trying to model fertility. (1) The reduction in fertility known as the Demographic Transition (or the Fertility Transition) seems to be much sharper based on cohort fertility measures compared to usual measures like Total Fertility Rate; (2) The baby boom was not quite as large as is suggested by some previous work; (3) We find a strong negative relationship between income and fertility for all cohorts and estimate an overall income elasticity of about -0.38 for the period; (4) We also find systematic deviations from a time invariant, isoelastic, relationship between income and fertility. The most interesting of these is an increase in the income elasticity of demand for children for the 1876-1880 to 1906-1910 birth cohorts. This implies an increased spread in fertility by income which was followed by a dramatic compression.

Dieser Datensatz wurde nicht während einer Tätigkeit an der Universität Mannheim veröffentlicht, dies ist eine Externe Publikation.




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Jones, Larry E. ; Tertilt, Michèle (2006) An economic history of fertility in the United States: 1826-1960. NBER Working Paper Cambridge, Mass. 12796 [Working paper]


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