Surprises in scheduled macroeconomic announcements: Why do they move the bond market?


Hess, Dieter


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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/523
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-5237
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2000
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: E44 G14 ,
Subject headings (SWD): Makroökonomie , Verbraucherinformation , Kreditmarkt
Abstract: It is well known that information arrival has an impact on prices volatility, and trading volume in financial markets. Scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as monthly employment figures, consumer prices, or building permits, stand out from the steady flow of information. Several studies show that these releases have a very distinct impact on prices. While most of these studies try to find out which releases are significant, considerably less effort has been devoted to the question what makes some releases so important in contrast to others that seem to attract no attention. Papers addressing this question emphasize the content of releases. For example, Edison (1996) discriminates between news related to unexpected inflation and those related to unexpected changes in economic activity. Investigating intraday T-bond futures price responses to surprises in scheduled macroeconomic releases, this paper presents evidence that the type of information is relevant. More specifically, the results suggest that the sequence of releases within a given content category helps to explain their relative importance. In other words, if market participants have already observed some figures on which they can base their assessment of a particular aspect of the economy, then the additional information of another related report should be small, and thus, its impact on prices.
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Hess, Dieter (2000) Surprises in scheduled macroeconomic announcements: Why do they move the bond market? Open Access [Working paper]
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