Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates


Asatryan, Zareh ; Havlik, Annika ; Heinemann, Friedrich ; Nover, Justus


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URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/52598
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-525981
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2019
The title of a journal, publication series: ZEW Discussion Papers
Volume: 19-025
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences - CDSB (Business Studies)
Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences - CDSE (Economics)
Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: B4 , D72 , E62 , H11,
Keywords (English): Biased research , fiscal multipliers , funding bias , publication bias
Abstract: The "true" size of fiscal multipliers is widely debated by economists and policy makers as large (small) multipliers provide arguments to expand (cut) public spending. Within a meta-analytical framework, we ask whether the large observed variance in multiplier estimates can be explained by the national imprint and various author incentives. For this purpose, we use data on economists' personal characteristics including results from a selfconducted author survey. Our evidence is consistent with the hypotheses that the national background of researchers and the interests of donors financing the research matter for the degree and direction of multiplier estimates. These potential biases largely disappear for teams of international co-authors.

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Asatryan, Zareh ; Havlik, Annika ; Heinemann, Friedrich ; Nover, Justus (2019) Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates. Open Access ZEW Discussion Papers Mannheim 19-025 [Working paper]
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