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Nowcasting the impact of COVID-19 on education, intergenerational mobility and earnings inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa
Neidhöfer, Guido
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Lustig, Nora
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Larroulet, Patricio
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URN:
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urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-626376
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Dokumenttyp:
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Arbeitspapier
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Erscheinungsjahr:
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2022
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Titel einer Zeitschrift oder einer Reihe:
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ZEW Discussion Papers
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Band/Volume:
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22-022
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Ort der Veröffentlichung:
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Mannheim
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Sprache der Veröffentlichung:
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Englisch
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Einrichtung:
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Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
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MADOC-Schriftenreihe:
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Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
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Fachgebiet:
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330 Wirtschaft
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Fachklassifikation:
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JEL:
I24 , I38 , J62,
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Freie Schlagwörter (Englisch):
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lockdowns , human capital , school closures , intergenerational persistence , education , inequality , Africa
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Abstract:
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Using microsimulations, we nowcast the impact of learning losses caused by COVID-19 on secondary school completion rates, intergenerational mobility of education, and long-run earnings inequality in eight countries Sub-Saharan Africa. On average, secondary school completion rates decrease by 12 percentage points overall and by 16 points for children with low-educated parents. Interestingly, in most countries the gender gap diminishes because for men the projected decrease in secondary school completion is higher. However, a small additional impact on girls’ education due to the Covid-19 induced rise in teenage pregnancy is observed in some countries. Intergenerational mobility of education decreases from 1 to close to 50 percent, depending on the country. As a result of the heterogeneous reduction in average years of schooling for advantaged vs. disadvantaged children, earnings inequality could increase between one and four Gini points, depending on the assumptions.
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